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Risks of Double Cot Death 'distorted'

Risks of Double Cot Death 'distorted'

There are still many unknowns in the subject of Cot Death. The chances of a subsequent child dying of cot death after losing your first have been overestimated, according to a new study which many fear will reignite the debate.

Previous studies into the condition have been classed as defective, as researchers failed to hold a post-mortem, rule out the possibility of murder or check for other familial causes.

It is hoped that the new research will go some way to reassuring those who had lost one child to the condition.
 
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The implication that murder may sometimes be involved will undoubtedly prove controversial.

Dr Christopher Bacon, the co-author of the report stated.. "It is likely there are some cases in which homicide is to blame," .

"But my main intention is to get the message across to those parents who have lost their first child that they do not have a significant risk of losing a second."
Several mothers' convictions for murder of their own children have been overturned on appeal, many on the grounds that there is a much higher chance of losing a second after losing one child to cot death.

The prominent paediatrician Sir Roy Meadow was struck off by the General Medical Council after telling a court in the case of the late Sally Clark - accused of killing her two sons - that the chances of losing two children to cot death were 73m to one.

His figures were then disputed by experts, including the Royal Statistical Society, who all stated that the odds of a second cot death were closer to 200 to one.

Sir Roy was struck off by the GMC for his 'misleading evidence'

"It is important that parents do not live in fear that they will lose their second child too. But the 80-90% risk factor is based on very large samples.
"Dr Bacon wants the bar of suspicion to be much lower and I simply don't agree with that,"
he said, adding that he would prefer to see a guilty parent exonerated than an innocent one sent to prison.

Since 1991, the number of cot deaths has fallen dramatically, but seven babies still die this way every week in the UK. Reports of losing two children to cot death however remain very rare indeed.

The Foundation for the Study of Infant Deaths (FSID) said it welcomed all new research.

12 June 2007

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